ECOWAS prepares standby force for possible Niger intervention

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Written by northsouth

Category: Africa

Published: 11 August 2023

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By Edward Mcallister and Anait Miridzhanian

ABUJA, NIGERIA - West African nations on Friday worked on plans for a possible military intervention in Niger following an army coup there although they have not given up hope of a peaceful resolution to a crisis that has shaken the region.

The Nigerien military ousted former President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, the seventh coup in West and Central Africa in three years and an action that raised the spectre of more unrest in an impoverished region battling an Islamist insurgency.

The regional bloc ECOWAS ordered the activation of a standby force on Thursday for possible use against the new junta, saying all options including military action were on the table.

It was not clear how big the force would be, if it would actually invade, and which countries would contribute. Security analysts said an ECOWAS force could take weeks or longer to assemble, potentially leaving room for negotiations.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday after a summit of its heads of state in the Nigerian capital Abuja, Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara said he considered the detention of Bazoum "a terrorist act" and promised to supply a battalion of troops to the force.

Asked how many troops that would involve, an Ivorian army spokesperson said a battalion consisted of 850 troops. Other countries are yet to say how many troops they could provide, if at all.

The coup in uranium-rich Niger, one of the world's poorest countries but a key ally for the West in the fight against Islamist militants in the Sahel region, was triggered by internal politics but has repercussions far beyond its borders.

U.S., French, German and Italian troops are stationed in Niger as part of the fight against the Islamist insurgency.

ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) the United Nations and Western countries are putting pressure on the junta to stand down, while military governments in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso have said they will defend it.

ECOWAS said on Thursday that all its diplomatic efforts so far had been "defiantly repelled" by the junta.

France said it fully backed all the conclusions of the ECOWAS meeting. But it stayed clear of outlining any concrete support it could give to any potential intervention.

Reiterating support for the efforts by ECOWAS, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States would hold the junta accountable for the safety of Bazoum and his family. The EU also called for his immediate release.

"President Bazoum has dedicated his life to improve conditions for the people of Niger. Nothing justifies such a treatment," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement.

Human Rights Watch said it had spoken to Bazoum this week and that the ousted president, who is being held captive by the junta with his wife and son, had told them that his family's treatment in custody was "inhuman and cruel".

"My son is sick, has a serious heart condition, and needs to see a doctor," HRW quoted Bazoum as telling them. "They’ve refused to let him get medical treatment."

HRW said Bazoum told them he had had no electricity since Aug. 2 and had not been allowed to see family and friends who wanted to bring them supplies.

West African leaders plan to meet on Niger but options are few

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Written by northsouth

Category: Africa

Published: 10 August 2023

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By SAM MEDNICK and CHINEDU ASADU

NIAMEY, Niger — West African heads of state are scheduled to meet Thursday after Niger’s military junta defied their deadline to reinstate the nation’s deposed president, but analysts say the Economic Community of West African States may be running out of options as support fades for a military intervention.

As Niger’s junta turns away most efforts at mediation, one analyst asserted that Russian meddling in the country has spiked in the two weeks since mutinous soldiers overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has refused to step down and is under house arrest.

The junta announced a new government on Wednesday night. More than half of the 21 positions were filled by civilians. The rest were military appointments.

Niger was seen as the last country in the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert that Western nations could partner with to counter jihadi violence linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that has killed thousands and displaced millions of people. The international community is scrambling to find a peaceful solution to the country’s leadership crisis.

“Let me tell you, any coup that has succeeded beyond 24 hours has come to stay. So, as it is, they are speaking from the point of strength and advantage,” Oladeinde Ariyo, a security analyst in neighboring Nigeria, said. “So, negotiating with them will have to be on their terms.”

Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is leading the ECOWAS push. On Wednesday, a Nigerian delegation led by the Emir of Kano, Khalifa Muhammad Sanusi, met the junta’s leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani. The emir was one of few people allowed to meet Tchiani.

Acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with the coup leaders earlier this week but was denied access to both Tchiani and Bazoum. A separate delegation comprised of ECOWAS, the United Nations and the African Union was barred from coming at all.

West Africa’s regional bloc has failed to stem past coups throughout the region. Niger is the fourth country in the 15-member state bloc to have experienced a coup in the last three years.

The bloc imposed harsh economic and travel sanctions and threatened to use military force if Bazoum was not reinstated by Sunday, a deadline the junta ignored. There is no indication the coup leaders are willing to budge on reinstating Bazoum, who says he is being held hostage in his residence with his wife and son.

An advisor to Bazoum who was not authorized to speak about the situation due to the sensitivity of it told The Associated Press on Wednesday that the family is without water and electricity and subsisting on rice and canned goods because food is running out.

U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said he was very concerned about reports of the “deplorable living conditions” Bazoum and his family were in and called for the president’s immediate release.

But as the junta becomes more entrenched, the options for negotiations are becoming limited, said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow with the Clingendael Institute.

“It’s very difficult to say what might come out of it, but the fact that the initial deadline passed without intervention and that the (junta) has continued to hold a fairly firm line, indicate that they think they can outlast this pressure,” he said.

The main parties’ positions are dangerously far apart, according to the International Crisis Group, which said that if dialogue is going to succeed, each side is going to have to make concessions, which they’ve so far refused to do.

Since seizing power, the junta has cut ties with France and exploited popular grievances toward its former colonial ruler to shore up its support base. It also has asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which operates in a handful of African countries and has been accused of committing human rights abuses.

Moscow is using Wagner and other channels of influence to discredit Western nations, Lou Osborn, an investigator with All Eyes on Wagner, a project focusing on the Wagner group, asserted to The Associated Press.

Tactics include using social media to spread rumors about Wagner’s upcoming arrival to Niger and employing fake accounts to mobilize demonstrations and spread false narratives, Osborn said. “Their objective is not to support the junta or an alternative political approach but to sow discord, create chaos, destabilize,” she said.

She pointed to a Telegram post on Wednesday by an alleged Wagner operative, Alexander Ivanov, asserting that France had begun the “mass removal of children” likely to be used for slave labor and sexual exploitation.

It was not immediately possible to verify the allegations. Wagner’s media arm is effectively disbanded and hasn’t replied to requests for comment since Niger’s coup.

While there’s no reason to believe Russia was behind the coup, it will leverage the opportunity to gain a stronger foothold in the region, something Western nations were trying to avoid, Sahel experts say.

France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and along with other European nations have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance into propping up the country’s forces. Much of that aid was suspended after members of the presidential guard overthrew Bazoum.

Meanwhile, Niger’s approximately 25 million people are feeling the impact of the sanctions.

Some neighborhoods in the capital, Niamey are living in the dark with little access to electricity and there are frequent power cuts across the city. The country gets up to 90% of its power from Nigeria, which has cut off some of the supply.

Since the coup, Hamidou Albade, 48, said he’s been unable to run his shop on the outskirts of Niamey because there’s been no electricity. He also works as a taxi driver but lost business there, too, because a lot of of his foreign clients have left the city.

“It’s very difficult, I just sit at home doing nothing,” he said. Still, he supports the junta. “We’re suffering now, but I know the junta will find a solution to get out of the crisis,” he said.

Pro-coup protesters attack French embassy in Niger

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Written by northsouth

Category: Africa

Published: 31 July 2023

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By SAM MEDNICK

NIAMEY. Niger - Thousands of people backing the coup in Niger marched through the streets of the capital denouncing France, the country’s former colonial power, waving Russian flags, and setting a door at the French Embassy ablaze on Sunday before the army broke up the crowd.

Demonstrators in Niger are openly resentful of France, and Russia is seen by some as a powerful alternative. The nature of Russia’s involvement in the rallies, if any, isn’t clear but some protesters have carried Russian flags, along with signs reading “Down with France” and supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner is operating in neighboring Mali, and under Putin Russia has expanded its influence in West Africa. The new junta’s leaders have not said whether they intend to ally themselves with Moscow or stick with Niger’s Western partners.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that attacks on France and its interests would not be tolerated and anyone who attacks French citizens will see an immediate response.

Niger, a French colony until 1960, had been seen as the West’s last reliable partner battling jihadists in Africa’s Sahel region. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country who conduct joint operations with the Nigeriens. The United States and other European countries have helped train the nation’s troops.

At an emergency meeting Sunday, the West African bloc known as ECOWAS said that it was suspending relations with Niger, and authorized the use of force if President Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated within a week. The African Union has issued its own 15-day ultimatum to the junta in Niger to reinstall the democratically elected government.

Shortly after the ECOWAS meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, Chadian President Mahamat Deby arrived in Niger to lead mediation efforts, according to the Chad state radio station.

ECOWAS has struggled to make a definitive impact on the region’s political crises in the past but Bazoum was democratically elected two years ago in Niger’s first peaceful transfer of power since independence from France in 1960.

Members of the Niger military announced on Wednesday that they had deposed Bazoum and on Friday named Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani as the country’s new leader, adding Niger to a growing list of military regimes in West Africa’s Sahel region.

Some leaders of the mutiny said they overthrew Bazoum because he wasn’t able to secure the nation against growing jihadi violence. But some analysts and Nigeriens say that was a pretext for a takeover driven by internal power struggles.

“We couldn’t expect a coup in Niger because there’s no social, political or security situation that would justify that the military take the power,” Prof. Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey, told The Associated Press.

He said Bazoum wanted to replace the head of the presidential guard, Tchiani. Tchiani, who also goes by Omar, was loyal to Bazoum’s predecessor, and that sparked the problems, Boubacar said.

Niger’s dire security situation is not as bad as that in neighboring Burkina Faso or Mali, which have also been battling an Islamic insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Last year, Niger was the only one of the three to see a decline in violence, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Some taking part in Sunday’s rally warned outside bodies to stay away.

“I would like also to say to the European Union, African Union and ECOWAS, please, please stay out of our business,” Oumar Barou Moussa said at the demonstration. “It’s time for us to take our lives, to work for ourselves. It’s time for us to talk about our freedom and liberty.”

Niger has the most at stake of any country in the Sahel if it turns away from the West, given the millions of dollars of military assistance it has received from abroad.

On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the continued security and economic cooperation with the U.S. hinges on the release of Bazoum — who remains under house arrest — and “the immediate restoration of the democratic order in Niger.”

Macron said he’d spoken to Bazoum and his predecessor on Sunday. On Saturday France suspended all development and financial aid to Niger.

The 15-nation ECOWAS bloc has unsuccessfully tried to restore democracies in nations where the military took power in recent years. Four nations are run by military regimes in West and Central Africa, where there have been nine successful or attempted coups since 2020.

While the bloc has struggled to have much impact, the measures placed on Niger Sunday show the gravity of the situation, said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow with the Clingendael Institute.

“The strenuous measures they have put in place or threatened to put in place show not only how seriously they are taking this crisis, but also the urgency the regional body and larger international community feel in trying to force a return to normal that will likely prove elusive,” he said.

The response from the bloc towards Niger differs from how it dealt with recent coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which did not involve the threat of force if constitutional rule wasn’t reinstated.

In the last few decades it has sent troops into member countries a handful of times.

In the 1990s, ECOWAS intervened in Liberia during its civil war. In 2017 it intervened in The Gambia to prevent the new president’s predecessor, Yahya Jammeh, from disrupting the handover of power. Approximately 7,000 troops from Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal entered, according to the Global Observatory, which provides analysis on peace and security issues.

Economic sanctions could have a deep impact on Nigeriens, who live in the third-poorest country in the world, according to the latest U.N. data. The country relies on imports from Nigeria for up to 90% of its power, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. The sanctions would suspend all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS member states and Niger.

In a televised address Saturday, Col. Major Amadou Abdramane, one of the soldiers who ousted Bazoum, accused the meeting of making a “plan of aggression” against Niger and said the country would defend itself.

“Tensions with the military are still ongoing. There could be another coup after this one, or a stronger intervention from ECOWAS, potentially military force,” said Tatiana Smirnova, a researcher in conflict resolution and peace missions at the Centre FrancoPaix. “Many actors are also trying to negotiate, but the outcome is unclear.”