Modi’s BJP loses majority in India election shock, needs allies for government

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Written by Super User

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Published: 05 June 2024

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By Yashraj Sharma

NEW DELHI - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its national majority after suffering major losses in key states, marking a dramatic shift in a political landscape it has dominated for the past decade.

The BJP emerged, comfortably, as the country’s single-largest party in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament. But as India’s election authorities counted 640 million votes within a day on Tuesday, after a six-week-long election, the BJP fell well short of its performances from 2014 and 2019.

Unlike both those elections, when the BJP won clear majorities on its own in a house of 543 seats, it ended up with 240 seats this time around. The halfway mark is 272 seats.

By contrast, the opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, won 223 seats, significantly higher than exit polls had predicted. Released on June 1 after the final phase of India’s election cycle, the exit polls had suggested that the BJP would outdo its 2019 tally of 303 seats.

Modi and his party are still likely to be able to form India’s next government – but will be dependent on a clutch of allies whose support they will need to cross the 272-seat mark. The BJP with its allies, in a coalition known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), won 283 seats.

“India will likely have an NDA government, where the BJP does not have a majority on their own, and coalition politics will come into real play,” said Sandeep Shastri, the national coordinator of the Lokniti Network, a research programme at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

On Tuesday evening, Modi claimed, in his first comments after the results were declared, victory for his NDA coalition. “We will form the next government,” he said, speaking to thousands of supporters gathered at the BJP’s party headquarters in New Delhi.

Yet, analysts said that the electoral verdict raised questions about the BJP’s strategy. As India’s long-drawn-out election campaign played out, Modi, India’s charismatic and polarising prime minister, had increasingly turned to fearmongering over an alleged plot by the opposition to hand over the nation’s resources to Muslims, at the cost of its majority Hindus.

Meanwhile, the opposition had tried to corner Modi on his government’s economic track record. While the country is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, voters told pollsters ahead of the election that high inflation and unemployment were key concerns for them.

The BJP’s campaign slogan, “Abki baar, 400 paar” (This time, more than 400), set a target of 400 seats for its alliance, and 370 seats for the BJP itself.

That pitch carried a “tone of overconfidence”, said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a Modi biographer, at a time when many in the Indian public were dealing with the lived realities of soaring prices, joblessness and income inequality so wide that it is now worse than during British colonial rule.

The result was the “sleepwalking of the BJP into a disaster”, said Asim Ali, a political analyst and columnist.

“Today, Modi has lost his face. He is not that ‘undefeated person’ and his invincible aura is not there any more,” said Ali.

Forming the next government

In some ways, the election verdict carries echoes of 2004, when another incumbent BJP government under then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was widely expected to win a landslide mandate by exit polls.

Instead, the Congress marginally edged the BJP in wins and formed the government with its allies.

But 2024 is not 2004. Despite the setbacks, the BJP is still, by far, the largest party in parliament, and in a position to form the next government along with its NDA allies. Congress, the largest opposition party, won 99 seats, less than half of the tally the BJP is expected to end up with when all votes are counted.

It is a point Modi emphasised in his public address on Tuesday evening.

“All our opponents, put together, did not win as many seats as the BJP alone,” he said, to loud chants of “Modi, Modi” from his supporters.

Still, two regional parties will now hold the key to the office of the prime minister of India: Janata Dal-United, led by Nitish Kumar in the state of Bihar, and the Telugu Desam Party, led by Chandrababu Naidu in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

The TDP won 16 seats and the JD(U) 12. Both the parties have also previously been in alliance with the Congress party.

While the BJP has made noticeable inroads in southern India – especially Kerala, where it won its first-ever Lok Sabha seat – its overall numbers were hit by major losses in the central Hindi-speaking states, which it had comfortably won in the last election.

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s biggest state and a key determinant of who rules nationally, the Hindu-nationalist party lost in the Faizabad parliamentary district, home to the controversial Ram Temple, built on the ruins of the 16th-century Babri Masjid. Modi had consecrated the temple in January.

The consecration of the Ram Temple was at the forefront of the BJP’s campaign to mobilise Hindu voters. The party also lost the key seat of Amethi, where federal Minister Smriti Irani is staring at defeat. Irani had pulled off a spectacular win over Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi family, by 55,000 votes in 2019.

This year, Gandhi contested from neighbouring Rae Bareli constituency and won the seat by a margin more than twice the size by which Modi won his seat, Varanasi, also in Uttar Pradesh.

Overall, the BJP won just 33 seats out of Uttar Pradesh’s 80, a significant drop from the 62 it won in 2019 and its tally of 71 from 2014. The regional Samajwadi Party, a part of the opposition INDIA alliance, won 37 seats, while the Congress won six others.

The BJP also suffered losses in Maharashtra, India’s second-most politically critical state. With most votes counted, the INDIA alliance won 30 of the state’s 48 seats. Only Uttar Pradesh has more seats – 80. In 2019, the BJP alone had won 23 seats in Maharashtra, with its allies winning another 18.

Along with Maharashtra, three other states that have been epicentres of India’s agrarian crisis, with major farm protests, also saw losses for the BJP compared with 2019: Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab. The BJP governs the states of Haryana and Rajasthan.

Congress celebrations

As soon as the initial trends trickled in on Tuesday morning, Congress supporters thronged the party headquarters in New Delhi. Supporters were seen sporting white T-shirts with photos of Rahul Gandhi on the back, as they waved the party flags, their eyes glued to giant screens broadcasting results live.

“Now, at least Indian people will have a voice to raise against the cruel BJP, who ruled us for the last 10 years. More seats mean we have a good say and a strong opposition,” said Suresh Verma, a Congress supporter.

The changed composition of India’s next parliament might also affect how laws are passed. Critics have accused the BJP government of ramming laws through parliament without discussions and debate.

That will not be easy any more, said Shastri. “It is going to be a much tougher ride in the parliament, very clearly, for the BJP.”

Beyond parliament, analysts said a weakened mandate could affect the functioning of India’s other democratic institutions, which critics have accused the BJP of appropriating for partisan politics.

“Under brute majority, institutions have collapsed in India under the BJP. The power system was very centralised at the top, and India needs these kinds of coalition-based governments for its democracy to survive,” Ali said.

What next for the BJP?

Once the immediate dust settles over these results, the BJP will introspect and the dominant duo of Modi and Amit Shah, India’s home minister who is widely seen as the prime minister’s deputy, will face tougher questions.

“There will be questions on imagining Modi as a leader of the alliance, where he would have to listen to non-BJP leaders much more,” said Shastri of the CSDS.

Ali, the political analyst, also noted that “the BJP failed to read the ground”, and a set of yes-men around Modi potentially blindsided his party. “It is like the king was only told the tales that he wanted to hear,” he said.

“It’s really important for the BJP that there is a feedback mechanism and decentralisation of the power.”

Over the past decade under a majority BJP government, India has slid on several democratic indices amid accusations of a crackdown on dissent, political opposition and media. Modi did not address any news conferences in the last decade as a prime minister.

With coalition partners to keep a check on the BJP, there “will be breathing space for the Indian civil society and the government’s critics”, said Mukhopadhyay, the biographer.

To many Indian Muslims, the outcome comes as a relief.

Watching the results from his shanty in northeastern New Delhi, Akbar Khan, a 33-year-old waste picker, said he was delighted. While all of Delhi’s seats are currently being led by the BJP in trends, Khan said that “the people came out on streets and have fought this election against the [incumbent] government”.

Khan, who also works with waste picker communities in states like Bihar and Jharkhand, said, “The economically backward castes and classes are hugely upset with Modi, and his divisive politics have not borne any fruits in their kitchen.”

As a Muslim, Khan said, he was upset by Modi’s Islamophobic remarks during the re-election campaign, where he equated the community with “infiltrators” and described them as people “who have more children”.

“Indians needed to vote against this hate from Modi and the BJP,” he said.

Macron “outraged by the Israeli strikes on Rafah” after dozens of civilians killed

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Written by Super User

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Published: 27 May 2024

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RAFAH, OCCUPIED GAZA - Writing on X, the French President Emanuel Macron said: “Outraged by the Israeli strikes that have killed many displaced persons in Rafah.

“These operations must stop. There are no safe areas in Rafah for Palestinian civilians.

“I call for full respect for international law and an immediate ceasefire.”

The Israel Defence Forces has launched an investigation into an airstrike on the southern Gaza city of Rafah that killed at least 45 people.

Gaza’s health ministry said on Monday that dozens of civilians had died after the strike hit tents for displaced people.

At least 23 women, children and elderly people were killed in the strike, they added.

The IDF said that its operational assessment ahead of the strike was that no civilians were going to be harmed.

Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, the IDF’s lead prosecutor, told a press conference that the military was committed to fully investigating the incident.

“Naturally, in a war with this scope and intensity, difficult events also occur, like the event yesterday night in Rafah, which was very difficult,” she said.

“The IDF regrets any harm to noncombatants over the course of the war.”

The strike came two days after the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to end its military offensive in Rafah, where more than half of Gaza's population had sought shelter before Israel's incursion earlier this month.

Footage from the scene showed heavy destruction.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said: “Devastating & heartbreaking scenes in Rafah following yet another Israeli attack - in flagrant breach of the ICJ ruling & international law.

“Our own Government's lack of leadership is beyond shameful. They must finally halt arms sales & put real pressure on to end this horror.”

Last week, Mr Macron said he was spearheading efforts to build up a "humanitarian coalition" regarding Gaza and talks were being held with Cyprus to serve as a potential base for humanitarian operations.

The Israeli military said its air force struck a Hamas compound in Rafah and that the strike was carried out with "precise ammunition and on the basis of precise intelligence."

It said the strike took out Hamas' chief of staff for the West Bank and another senior official behind deadly attacks on Israelis.

The IDF added that it was aware of reports that civilians were harmed and is investigating.

A spokesperson with the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said the death toll was likely to rise as search and rescue efforts continued in Rafah's Tal al-Sultan neighbourhood about 1.2 miles northwest of the city centre.

The neighbourhood is not included in areas that Israel's military ordered evacuated earlier this month.

The spokesman for the health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza, Ashraf Al-Qidra, said 35 people were killed and dozens others, most of them women and children, were wounded in the attack.

An IDF spokesperson said: “An IDF aircraft struck a Hamas compound in Rafah in which significant Hamas terrorists were operating a short while ago.

“The strike was carried out against legitimate targets under international law, through the use of precise munitions and on the basis of precise intelligence that indicated Hamas' use of the area.

“The IDF is aware of reports indicating that as a result of the strike and fire that was ignited several civilians in the area were harmed. The incident is under review.”

The airstrike was reported hours after Hamas fired a barrage of rockets from Gaza that set off air raid sirens as far away as Tel Aviv for the first time in months.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in what appeared to be the first long-range rocket attack from Gaza since January.

Hamas' military wing claimed responsibility. Israel's military said eight projectiles crossed into Israel after being launched from Rafah and "a number" were intercepted, and the launcher was destroyed.

Earlier Sunday, aid trucks entered Gaza from southern Israel under a new agreement to bypass the Rafah crossing with Egypt after Israeli forces seized the Palestinian side of it earlier this month.

But it was not immediately clear if humanitarian groups could access the aid, including medical supplies, because of fighting.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his war cabinet on Sunday evening to discuss continued operations in Rafah.

Israel argues that the UN’s court's ruling allows room for some military action there.

Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz said the rockets fired from Rafah "prove that the IDF must operate in every place Hamas still operates from".

UNRWA says Israel coerced some agency employees to falsely admit Hamas links

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Written by northsouth

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Published: 09 March 2024

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GENEVA - The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees said some employees released into Gaza from Israeli detention reported having been pressured by Israeli authorities into falsely stating that the agency has Hamas links and that staff took part in the Oct. 7 attacks.

The assertions are contained in a report by the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) reviewed by Reuters and dated February 2024 which detailed allegations of mistreatment in Israeli detention made by unidentified Palestinians, including several working for UNRWA.

UNRWA communications director Juliette Touma said the agency planned to hand the information in the 11-page, unpublished report to agencies inside and outside the U.N. specialised in documenting potential human rights abuses.

"When the war comes to an end there needs to be a series of inquiries to look into all violations of human rights," she said.

The document said several UNRWA Palestinian staffers had been detained by the Israeli army, and added that the ill-treatment and abuse they said they had experienced included severe physical beatings, waterboarding, and threats of harm to family members.

"Agency staff members have been subject to threats and coercion by the Israeli authorities while in detention, and pressured to make false statements against the Agency, including that the Agency has affiliations with Hamas and that UNRWA staff members took part in the 7 October 2023 atrocities,” the report says.

UNRWA declined a Reuters request to see transcripts of its interviews containing allegations of coerced false confessions.

In addition to the alleged abuse endured by UNRWA staff members, Palestinian detainees more broadly described allegations of abuse, including beatings, humiliation, threats, dog attacks, sexual violence, and deaths of detainees denied medical treatment, the UNRWA report said.

OPERATIONS IN CRISIS

UNRWA, which provides aid and essential services to Palestinian refugees, is at the centre of a crisis over Israeli allegations made in January that 12 of its 13,000 staff in Gaza took part in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

The Israeli accusations led 16 countries including the United States to pause $450 million in UNRWA funding, throwing its operations into crisis. UNRWA fired some staff members, saying it acted in order to protect the agency's ability to deliver humanitarian assistance, and an independent internal U.N. investigation was launched.

Norway, which has continued to finance the agency, said on March 6 that many countries that paused their funding are likely having second thoughts and payments could resume soon.

Reuters could not independently confirm the accounts of coercion of UNRWA staff and mistreatment of detainees, although the allegations of ill-treatment accord with descriptions by Palestinians freed from detention in December, February and March reported by Reuters and other news media.

Asked by Reuters for comment on the range of allegations in the report, an Israeli military spokesperson didn't specifically respond to allegations of UNRWA staff being coerced, but said the Israeli Defense Forces acts in accordance with Israeli and international law to protect the rights of the detainees.

Concrete complaints of inappropriate behaviour are forwarded to the relevant authorities for review, and an investigation is conducted for each death of a detainee by the military police, the spokesperson said, adding Israel denies general and unsubstantiated claims about sexual abuse of detainees.

The spokesperson said freed detainees are subject to Hamas' control and can be forced to denounce Israel or risk "harm".
Responding to that assertion about the detainees' credibility, Touma said the report was based on "first-hand testimonies that people told us. In some cases there were clearly some physical impact on people's bodies. And also psychological impact. So this is what's also been documented."

UNRWA provides education, health and relief services to about 5.7 million registered Palestinian refugees around the Middle East. The U.S. has been by far the biggest donor to its $1.4 billion annual budget.

The Israeli army levelled new accusations at UNRWA on March 4, saying it employed over 450 "military operatives" from Hamas and other armed groups, and that Israel has shared this intelligence with the United Nations.

INTERROGATION

Later that day, the head of UNRWA warned of "a deliberate and concerted campaign" aimed at ending the agency's work, citing comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and destruction of the agency's infrastructure in Gaza.

Asked about the latest Israeli accusations, Touma said UNRWA encouraged any entity with information on the allegations against UNRWA staff to share it with the investigation, which is being conducted by a U.N. oversight body.

Touma told Reuters the document was based on interviews the agency had conducted with dozens of Palestinians freed from Israeli detention to whom UNRWA provided assistance.

She said she could not provide a more detailed figure and did not know how many of the detainees made the allegations about abuse or being coerced into saying UNRWA has Hamas links.

The report focuses on detainees who were taken out of Gaza for extended periods of interrogation before being returned to Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing from December to February.

ISRAEL SEEKS UNRWA'S CLOSURE

The report said UNRWA had documented the release of 1,002 detainees at Kerem Shalom aged from six to 82 years-old as of Feb. 19.

The Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault killed 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in another 253 being abducted, according to Israeli tallies. More than 30,000 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip during the Israeli offensive launched in response, according to health authorities in Hamas-controlled Gaza.

UNRWA has condemned the Oct. 7 attacks, saying the Israeli allegations against the agency - if true - are a betrayal of U.N. values and of the people UNRWA serves.
The U.N. investigators said on Feb. 29 they expected to receive materials soon from Israel relating to its accusations that UNRWA staffers are members of Hamas.
Israel says UNRWA should be shut down.

Reuters has previously interviewed Palestinians detained by Israel during the conflict who have reported mistreatment. They include three men who said they and fellow detainees had been beaten, stripped to their underwear, and burnt with cigarettes.

The copy of the report viewed by Reuters did not contain any photographs or identify any of the detainees by name.