LONDON - Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.

Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools either on a full- or part-time basis, thus allowing parents to return to work, on the potential spread of the virus.

They concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75% of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68% of their contacts were traced, or if 87% of people with symptoms were found and 40% of their contacts tested.

"However, we also predict that in the absence of sufficiently broad test–trace–isolate coverage, reopening of schools combined with accompanied reopening of society across all scenarios might induce a second Covid-19 wave," said the study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health.

"Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original Covid-19 wave."

The lead author of the study, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, said the test-and-trace system in England was currently reaching only about 50% of contacts of all those testing positive for Covid-19.

Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.

"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."

Schools in Britain closed in March during the national lockdown, except for the children of key workers, and reopened for a small number of pupils in June.

However, the government says all pupils will return to school across the United Kingdom by early September with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it is a national priority.

"I think we all accept that test-and-trace is a programme which needs to continue to improve. There is total humility in government about that," junior local government minister Simon Clarke told BBC radio.

"We fully accept that we need to keep driving those numbers up," he said.

PARIS - The OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook provides regular updates on trends and developments associated with sovereign borrowing requirements, funding strategies, market infrastructure and debt levels from the perspective of public debt managers.

The Outlook makes a policy distinction between funding strategy and borrowing requirements. The central government marketable gross borrowing needs, or requirements, are calculated on the basis of budget deficits and redemptions.

The funding strategy entails decisions on how borrowing needs are going to be financed using different instruments and which distribution channels are being used.

This edition reviews developments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for government borrowing needs, funding conditions and funding strategies in the OECD area, updating 2020 estimates released prior to the outbreak.

It examines debt issuance trends for government securities in emerging market and developing economies since 2020, and presents novel insights on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on issuance conditions in these economies.

It then discusses how debt management offices can adapt their governance practices to prioritise and deal with the aggravated operational and market risks presented by the COVID-19 crisis.

GENEVA -Roma people in Europe face widespread discrimination in many areas of life, including housing and health. In this opinion piece, Francoise Jacob, the UN Resident Coordinator in Serbia, explains how the UN is helping Roma communities, many of which have no access to safe water or electricity, to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first time I met Roma people in the Western Balkan region was in 1999, while I was working in Montenegro. I had just come out of a few hard years in South Sudan and Rwanda, and I was looking forward to coming closer to home.

I was working for an NGO and spent my days in the Roma camp outside of the town of Podgorica, where thousands of people were struggling to make a living. Despite the tensions, past and recent, and the lack of many things, the camp was not a sad place, somehow.

I remember being amazed by the incredible diversity of facial features in that community, feeling sometimes like I was in an international airport with people coming from around the world. I remember thinking the history of these people is on their face. Many families had similar stories and ancestry, but others recalled different paths, India, the Middle East, northern Africa.

I could see the camp as a lake, where different rivers had converged, over the centuries; and the lake was tempted between remaining a lake or turning back into a river.

We used to sit with Roma women, and share stories. After a while, they read my future in the coffee grounds, and of course, it involved love.

We probably were working on needs assessment or something like that, but I just remember the two things that all women kept mentioning to me: they wanted better teeth (their teeth were damaged quickly due to poor nutrition and hygiene conditions), and they wanted nail polish. They were 15, 35, 50-year-old, and in the midst of chaos and despair, they wanted beauty, and love.

This was one of these moments that captured the reality of inequalities: not just a sophisticated macro-economic concept, but something people experience as individuals, something which prevents them from fulfilling their potential and their dreams, in whatever shape and scope.

A year later, I met them again. In Gujarat, India, in the wake of the 2001 devastating earthquake. There, they are called Kuchis, the nomadic tribes of India and Afghanistan. Same faces, same stories, same music. Same extraordinary resilience within different chaos. The first migrants.

Addressing the needs of the most vulnerable Roma communities in Serbia

I meet Roma families now again, in Serbia, in my position of the UN Resident Coordinator in Serbia, in the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. According to the official data, there are at least 150,000 Roma people living in Serbia, though unofficial figures point this number may be significantly higher.

During the first three months of the UN response to COVID-19, our teams, along with government counterparts, identified that tens of thousands of Roma lacked basic access to safe water and electricity, which is a serious health risk in the time of a pandemic, besides being a threat to life and human dignity.

We assessed humanitarian needs in 500 substandard Roma settlements (out of over 760 estimated settlements) and quickly started acting. In close cooperation with the Serbian Red Cross at the local level and many other local stakeholders, the UN has provided assistance packages and tailor-made health messages to thousands of Roma families at risk.

The UN also put in place assistance so that Roma children could attend some form of remote education, in communities where access to the internet and to computer is extremely limited.

Eighty-two Roma health mediators in 70 municipalities switched to telephone consultations. In just a few weeks' they reached 9,260 Roma families, advised over 4,500 persons on preventive measures, and referred over 100 persons to COVID-19 testing centres.

For a long period of time, Roma people in Serbia have been structurally neglected, which resulted in inadequate housing, unequal access to education for Roma children and unequal position in the open labour market. 

Roma communities face multiple risks of discrimination and marginalization: Roma women and girls are traditionally engaged in early marriages, social and family neglect; Roma children consistently work in informal, dangerous labour, and Roma Internally Displaced Person (IDPs) are amongst the most destitute people in the region. In the months and years to come, as a response to COVID-19 threats and beyond, the UN will continue to work with Roma communities and assist the government in adopting national policies that are in line with human rights standards. We will also continue to work on building capacities of Roma civil society for effective advocacy and human rights monitoring.

In the true spirit of Leave No One Behind, it is our duty to ensure that this particular group of people gets a fair deal in the face of COVID-19 and the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and blossom on their own path. I hope that we will succeed!

Who are the Roma?

- “Roma” is used to describe a number of sub-groups, such as Sinti, Kalé, and Gitano, who live in several European countries. Formerly nomadic, the majority are now sedentary.

- Roma have been described as “the world's most populous marginalized community”. They have been persecuted for hundreds of years and, during the Second World War, hundreds of thousands were murdered by the Nazi regime.

- Roma Holocaust Remembrance Day is marked annually on 2 August. This year, Fernand de Varennes, UN Special Rapporteur on minority issues, issued a reminder that, nearly eight decades on, hatred, exclusion and vilification of the Roma still persist today in many parts of the world.

LONDON - Spain embarked on a secret lobbying drive to push US congressmen into supporting a plan to strip Britain of sole sovereignty over Gibraltar,according to the Daily Telegraph.

Seven current and former members of the House of Representatives say the Spanish Embassy in the US protested after Washington signed a resolution backing Gibraltar's British status.

One congressman said: “The Spaniards went nuts.”

LONDON - Dozens of witnesses to the shootings of protesters in Mali last month told Amnesty International they had clearly identified some of the perpetrators as the bodyguards of Manassa Danioko, President of the Constitutional Court.

The protests between 10 and 12 July were organized by the ‘Mouvement du 5 Juin-Rassemblement des forces patriotiques (M5-RFP)’, that has been demonstrating against poor governance and electoral fraud in Mali since 5 June and has called for the resignation of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. The demonstrations coincided with the call for civil disobedience by the M5-RFP, but they were brutally repressed by the security forces across Bamako, the capital, resulting in the deaths of at least 11 protesters and bystanders, and dozens being injured.

“Rumors of the arrest of the leader of the M5-RFP, Imam Mahmoud Dicko, led on 11 July, to a mobilization of demonstrators and residents in the neighborhood of Badalabougou. Some of them moved towards the house of Manassa Danioko, which is not far from Dicko’s residence,” said Ousmane Diallo, Amnesty International’s West Africa Researcher.

“This led to the firing of live ammunition by security guards and by the police, at the protesters, causing the deaths of four individuals during that incident alone. A fair and impartial investigation into these deaths must urgently be launched, and those responsible must be brought to justice.”
 

Horrific accounts of violence perpetrated by police
 

Amnesty International interviewed 41 respondents, including witnesses to the violence, injured demonstrators, journalists, opposition leaders and public officials. Witnesses and families of victims shared horrific accounts of the violence perpetrated by police in Badalabougou and Sogoninko neighborhoods where protests were held on 11 July, along with the responsibility of bodyguards to the President of the Constitutional Court in the deaths of protesters in Badalabougou.

The organization also collected photos and video evidence of the injuries sustained by the protesters, of the impact of bullets on civilian buildings, and of the clashes between demonstrators and security forces, which all concord with the testimonies collected.
 

Several killed not involved in the protests
 

Several of those killed during the three days of repression were not involved in the protests.  Fayçal Cissé, 25, was the first victim of the lethal use of force. He was a former madrassa student who was not part of the protest and was at a mosque around 300 m from the National Assembly. A relative told Amnesty International  that he was hit by a bullet fired from the National Assembly, while he was between the ablutions area and the prayer room. He fell in the courtyard of the mosque and died subsequently of his wounds.

A 37-year-old protestor told Amnesty International how they were dislodged from the   public broadcaster’s premises by security forces who started beating and injuring many of them, including women. They hit them on their heads and arms with sticks.  They were dispersed by the security forces who fired live ammunition at the protestors, causing one death near the National Assembly.

Among those killed was Halidou Bouaré, 21.  Like Sidi Mohamed Doumbia, Bouaré was working when he was struck by a bullet,  fired by security forces.

One of his relatives, who witnessed the incident from outside his house, told Amnesty International:

“Halidou Bouaré was shot while he was at the carwash where he worked.  He wasn’t demonstrating but since he was close to scene, he was hit by two bullets, one in the stomach and one in the shoulder, while he was doing his work.  He lost consciousness while I was transporting him to the hospital. Blood was flowing from his mouth. He died at the hospital soon after our arrival.”
 

Violence escalated on 11 and 12 July

 
The violence escalated on 11 and 12 July, following news  that security forces planned to arrest Imam Mahmoud Dicko after they had arrested several other M5-RFP leaders.

Amnesty International spoke to several witnesses who identified the bodyguards of Manassa Danioko, the President of the Constitutional Court, as shooting at protesters on the afternoon of 11 July. Aly Sylla, 29, was among the victims.

 

A relative of his told the organization:



“During the clashes with the police, Aly was shot in the head. Several youths identified the gunman as one of Manassa Danioko's bodyguards. He was with one of his friends who took pictures of the bodyguard and identified him. He told the shooter that he took a good picture of him and that he would pay for this crime. The police tried to arrest him, but he escaped.”

While Aly Sylla died on the spot, two other victims of the same incident died at the hospital from their wounds.

One of them was Sidi Mohamed Doumbia, a 16-year old student who was at work in Badalabougou, repairing motorcycles when he was shot. He was hit in the stomach and arm while he stood at a good distance from the policemen and the demonstrations. His father recounted the heartbreaking experience of watching his son die:

“I remember my son telling me "Daddy, I cannot breathe anymore". … I could see that he was dying in front of me, while at the hospital. I don't know who fired, but the children around said it was one of the bodyguards .”

 
FORSAT is witnessed launching an assault on a mosque


The role of the FORSAT,  a special government antiterrorist unit in the arrests of leaders of the M5-RFP and in the assault of the mosque of Imam Mahmoud Dicko is also of grave concern and deserves thorough investigations.

Several witnesses told Amnesty International that during an 11 July meeting of M5-RFP, hooded men in heavy gear suspected to belong to FORSAT arrived heavily armed in two unmarked public buses to disrupt the meeting.

“Other witnesses recounted seeing FORSAT members deployed to arrest the leaders of the M5-RFP on 11 July. They also were witnessed launching an assault on the mosque of Imam Mahmoud Dicko during the evening,” said Ousmane Diallo.

“The deployment of the FORSAT to maintain public order during the demonstrations is a clear violation of its mandate. Another red line was crossed when the security forces fired live ammunition at protesters.”

In an official letter dated on 14 July addressed to the Ministry of Public Security, the Prime Minister asked for the reasons behind the deployment of the FORSAT and who authorized it.  While welcoming this development, Amnesty International calls for responsibilities to be clearly established regarding who gave the security forces order to fire at the demonstrators, when they presented no danger to them.

 
Medical student killed; journalist beaten

 
While trying to control demonstrators and destroy barricades, police also killed Mamadou Ba, a doctoral student in medicine, who was called by a health center to support them in their work.

According to a witness, Mamadou Ba was shot near the health center by policemen positioned a hundred meters further from the street. The bullet caused serious injuries and after losing much blood, he died of his wounds in the hospital during surgery.

In addition to Ba, at least four people were shot and wounded at that scene.  In the same area a building was hit by the bullets of the security forces when they were responding to the demonstrations.

Koudedja Doucouré, a 22-year old woman was wounded by a bullet to the chest when she went to her window to inquire about the commotion.  Amnesty International obtained pictures of bullet impact on the windows and walls of a building next to where security forces were positioned.
 

Journalists also came under attack during the protests

 
According to one journalist, police officers prevented him from doing his job while he was capturing the evidence of the ill-treatment of three youngsters on 11 July. He told Amnesty International that when he refused to hand over his cellphone, policemen started beating him with a baton on his head, back and hips. They forcefully took his cellphone, deleted all evidence of their conduct, accused him of being a member of the M5-RFP, before eventually letting him go with his cellphone.

The  UN Human Rights Committee states that “peaceful assemblies can play a critical role in allowing participants to advance ideas and aspirational goals in the public domain, and to establish the extent of support for or opposition to those ideas and goals. Where they are used to air grievances, peaceful assemblies may create opportunities for inclusive, participatory and peaceful resolution of differences. …A failure to respect and ensure the right of peaceful assembly is typically a marker of repression.”

 “The lethal use of force by the security forces must be investigated. Protesters and their families deserve to know who gave the license for the security forces to fire at them and their relatives, and there cannot be any credible solution to the political crisis if human rights are not respected and justice is not delivered,” said Ousmane Diallo.

“The freedom of peaceful assembly must be respected by the authorities and it is outrageous that security forces, including special forces, fired live bullets at the demonstrators. No citizen deserves to die for expressing their opinion, or for denouncing the poor governance of their own country.”

 
 

BANJUL - Three cabinet ministers in The Gambia have tested positive for coronavirus, according to a statement from the presidency.

President Adama Barrow last week went into self-isolation after Vice-President Isatou Touray tested positive for the virus.

Finance Minister Mambureh Njie, Petroleum and Energy Minister Fafa Sanyang and Agriculture Minister Amie Fabureh have also contracted the virus, the presidency said in a tweet.

The Gambia has so far confirmed nearly 500 coronavirus cases and nine deaths.

The government has made the wearing of face masks mandatory in public places and has also prohibited social gatherings.(FA)

HARARE - Doctors in Zimbabwe say the country is facing a crisis from a shortage of healthcare workers as the number of Covid- 19 infections begins to rise.

Dr Rashida Ferrand, an epidemiologist at the main public hospital in the capital Harare told the BBC there are too few doctors and nurses because of a health workers' strike, which began before the pandemic, and a shortage of protective equipment.

She told the BBC's Newsday programme:

As a result of that, many wards, including the Covid centre, do not have enough staff. So whilst we have the capacity, we're currently relying on two volunteer doctors and a small group of nurses per shift. Even though we have extremely sick patients we are taking in only a maximum of 30 patients."

The hospital is having to turn patients away:

The reality is that if there are patients who are about to die and are at home I ask relatives and doctors to make them comfortable.

We've had patients dying in the car park and unfortunately as soon as [we reach] the limit of 30 beds which I can cope with, given the staff I have, I have to say 'no' [to their admission to the hospital].

And that is a very very gut wrenchingly difficult decision we've had to make over the last couple of weeks."

Zimbabwe has had nearly 4,000 confirmed virus cases, with 70 deaths officially registered, but doctors say the actual numbers argher.(FA)

NAIROBI - A Kenyan nurse has died from Covid-19 days shortly after giving birth for the first time while undergoing treatment for the disease in hospital.

Local media report that the nurse, identified as Marian Awuor Adumbo, was admitted to a hospital west of the capital, Nairobi, and had initially tested negative for Covid-19.

Her condition worsened and she was admitted to another health facility where she tested positive.

She delivered her baby and went into the intensive care unit where she later died.(FA)

WINDHOEK - School attendance for most students is set to be suspended in Namibia again on Tuesday as coronavirus cases increase in the country.

The closure comes after parents and teachers had threatened to demonstrate if schools remained open despite the rising number of new infections.

Learning in all classes, except for final year students, will be suspended for 28 days.

President Hage Geingob on Friday tightened the rules prohibiting drinking in bars and taverns but drinking is allowed at home.

The president relaxed the rules for tourists not to undergo 14 days mandatory quarantine if they present a negative Covid-19 test conducted within 72 hours before arrival.

The country has so far recorded more than 2,200 cases of the virus.(FA)

MELBOURNE - In the Australian city of Melbourne, police have been seen patrolling the deserted streets after a night-time curfew was imposed to stem the spread of Covid-19.

As we reported earlier, Victoria, where Melbourne is based, has declared a state of disaster after lockdown measures introduced in July failed to curtail coronavirus cases.

Now even stricter restrictions have been implemented by Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews, who said he was not prepared to see more residents “choked to death by an invisible enemy”.

Under the curfew, which came into effect on Sunday, Melbourne residents are not allowed outside from 20:00 to 05:00.

Pictures of empty streets from Melbourne suggest many residents have complied by the new rules, which police have new powers to enforce.

Other images showed people waiting in line for the supermarket, hours before the curfew was due to start.(FA)

SYDNEY - Chinese students in Sydney are being targeted in a kidnapping scam forcing them to pay massive ransoms to fraudsters, Australian police say.

In many cases, blackmailed students were forced to stage their own kidnapping and send video proof to relatives in China to obtain funds.

Eight "virtual kidnappings" have been reported this year, including one where a A$2m (£1.1m;$1.43m) ransom was paid.

Victims had believed they or their loved ones were in danger, police said.

New South Wales (NSW) Police said the scheme had "really increased in frequency throughout 2020" and was operating on an "industrial scale".

They have urged students to immediately report any threatening calls they receive.

Authorities said the "call centre-type" scam was being operated offshore, which made it difficult to track.

It typically involves a fraudster pretending to be from the Chinese embassy or another authority, ringing victims and informing them that they have been implicated in a crime in China or are facing some other threat.

The scammers, who usually speak Mandarin, then demand the student pay ongoing fees in order to avoid arrest or deportation.

In some cases, the students are also convinced to cease contact with their family and friends, rent a hotel room and fake a hostage situation to obtain funds from their relatives overseas.

In one case, a father had already paid more than A$2m (£1.1m; $1.43m) in ransom payments, before receiving a video of his daughter gagged and bound in an unknown location.

He then contacted police in Sydney who, after an hour's search, found the woman safe and well at a hotel room in the city.

In other cases reported to police this year, payments ranged from A$20,000 to A$300,000.

"On some occasions, [families] have basically paid every cent they've got," said Detective Chief Superintendent Darren Bennett.

In many of the cases, when police were contacted they typically found the victim safe the next day. Often the victims felt too embarrassed or ashamed to report the crime.

"The victims of virtual kidnappings we have engaged are traumatised by what has occurred, believing they have placed themselves, and their loved ones, in real danger," said NSW Police.

Police said the scam was operating on a mass scale, and appeared to involve a blitz of automated phone calls sent to anyone with a Chinese surname in the phone book.

"They cast their net very widely and they're getting a few people who fall for it, which is very lucrative for them," said Mr Bennett.

He noted that there had been a sharp increase in the past few months, where "pretty much every weekend we've had a victim fall for one of these scams."

Advocates for international students in Australia say they have been more vulnerable amid the pandemic due to their reliance on casual work, and their exclusion from government welfare.

Police said "cultural factors", as well as the isolation of some international students, made them a vulnerable target.

Victims could then be manipulated into extremes such as faking a kidnap because they had fallen under the scammer's "psychological control", Mr Bennett said.

"Students can do two important things to protect themselves against these types of crimes - firstly, be aware they exist and secondly, ask for help early if they think it might be happening to them or someone they know," said NSW Police.

There have also been reports of such frauds occurring in New Zealand and the United States.(FA)

SYDNEY - Nearly 90% of people in the Australian state of Victoria with Covid-19 symptoms did not self-isolate, alarming new analysis has shown.

According to 9 News, 3,400 of the 3,810 cases who made up the analysis carried on as normal, despite suffering symptoms of coronavirus.

Victoria premier Daniel Andrews said he was "very unhappy and sad" with the figure and criticised those who ignored the advice about staying at home.

He said: "That's an interesting measure in that people have felt sick, they've got symptoms, and they've kept going shopping, they've kept going to work...

"You must go and get tested when you feel sick.

"That is the only thing that you can and must do. And if people don't do that, then we will continue to see numbers increase."

Figures also showed that over half (53%) of Victorians did not stay home between when they were tested for coronavirus and when they got their results.

Andrews said the current lockdown in the state would go on for "much longer" than six weeks if cases did not begin to go down.

Australia placed millions back into lockdown following a spike of coronavirus cases earlier this month.

The country has been among the world's most successful in containing its coronavirus outbreak – with the exception of Melbourne, Victoria's capital and the country's second-largest city.

The south-eastern state had some of the nation's toughest pandemic measures and was among the most reluctant to lift restrictions when the worst of the outbreak seemed to have passed.

But as most of the country emerges from lockdown restrictions, in Melbourne the virus has resumed spreading at an alarming rate.

It comes as weekly coronavirus deaths in England and Wales have fallen by almost a third within seven days and remain at the lowest level since before the lockdown.

There were 366 deaths registered in the week ending 10 July involving Covid-19 – accounting for 4.2% of all deaths in England and Wales, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

This is a 31.2% fall from the previous week, when there were 532 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

It is also the fourth week in a row that deaths have been below the number that would usually be expected at this time of year, based on an average from the previous five years.

There were a total of 8,690 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week to 10 July, according to the ONS, 560 fewer than the five-year average of 9,250.

MELBOURNE, Australia - The Australian city of Melbourne is set to make mask wearing in public mandatory as it faces a spike in cases.

Victoria state, where Melbourne is located, reported a further 363 infections on Sunday. A lockdown is currently in place in Melbourne and some of its surrounding areas.

Premier Daniel Andrews said people in the city and in Mitchell Shire would be required to wear a face covering from midnight on Wednesday.

“You won’t be able to leave home without your mask and then wear it where it is absolutely essential to stop the spread of the virus,” he said.

Those who do not comply with the rule will face a $200 fine (£111, $140).

Australia has reported 12,000 cases of the virus since the pandemic began and 122 deaths.(FA)