LONDON - ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) Conflict Index assesses every country and territory in the world according to four indicators – deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation – based on analysis of political violence event data collected for the past year.
The global conflict landscape is intensifying in the past 12 months, ACLED has recorded over 165,000 political violence events, reflecting a 15% rise in events from the previous year. One in seven people worldwide are now affected by conflict. Conflicts differ in their intensity, frequency, and form. While some degree of political violence occurs in almost every country and territory worldwide, the highest levels are concentrated in the top 50 ranked locations on the ACLED Conflict Index — accounting for over 97% of all conflict events recorded for the past year.
The ACLED Conflict Index assesses every country and territory in the world according to four indicators – deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation – based on analysis of political violence event data collected for the past year. Drawing on the latest data and insights, the Index is now updated with mid-year rankings.
Conflict Index: July 2024
Palestine is the most dangerous and violent place in the world, topping the index for geographic diffusion of conflict, deadliness, and danger to civilians, while Myanmar has the most armed group fragmentation.
Palestine is the most dangerous country in the world as of July 2024
The most dangerous and violent place in the world at the moment is Palestine — specifically Gaza, with 87% of the Palestinian population exposed to conflict. Palestine is now at the top of the index overall, edging out Myanmar as the most conflicted territory. Whereas Palestine was ranked highest for conflict diffusion in the January index, it is now ranking highest in the diffusion of conflict, deadliness, and danger to civilians. Myanmar continues to host the most armed group fragmentation.
In January 2024,10 countries hosted extreme levels of conflict, including:
Myanmar, Syria, Palestine, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, Colombia, Haiti, Yemen, and Sudan. These countries reflected the previous year’s aggregate patterns. In July 2024, the following 10 countries hosted extreme levels of conflict: Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, Nigeria, Colombia, Brazil, Sudan, Cameroon, and Pakistan.
Cameroon and Pakistan rose significantly in the Index, entering into the extreme, whereas previously both hosted ‘high’ levels of conflict. In July, Haiti and Yemen ranked 12 and 13, respectively, making them the only two countries to not remain in the top 10 since January.
How much conflict is occurring in the world as of July 2024?
Over 165,273 political violence events were recorded worldwide during this period, marking a 15% increase from the previous 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024). One in seven people worldwide is estimated to have been exposed to conflict between July 2023 and 2024.
In previous years, the increase in conflict has been stark. During the period of July 2020 to June 2021, ACLED records 100,272 events and 13% global exposure to conflict. The massive increase in four years, which sits at 64%, can be explained by three very large conflicts beginning or restarting during that time — Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — coupled with continued violence in many other countries with high rates of conflict — including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen, and Sahel countries. The event numbers are proliferating, as are the number of armed groups involved in violence.
However, the rate of exposure has stayed relatively stable during this period, moving from 13% to 14% overall (with a short increase last year to 17%). Why is this the case? Partially, it relates to the clustering of conflicts: Event numbers can rise, but unless conflict is diffusing and occurring in new spaces, the same people are exposed. This repeated exposure suggests that a significant part of the global population is bearing the intense cost of rising violent conflict, while many more are indirectly affected.
Where is conflict happening as of July 2024?
In the past 12 months, the most violent country measured by event count is Ukraine, averaging over 791 political violence incidents per week and accounting for 26% of all political violence events occurring in the past year. Ukraine was also the deadliest, with over 37,303 recorded fatalities in the past year. But now Palestine ranks highest in deadliness, conflict diffusion, and danger to civilians: 39,787 people were reportedly killed since July 2023, of which 35,201 are recorded as civilian deaths. As previously noted, 87% of the population is exposed to extreme violence, and over 16,938 conflict events occurred in Palestine during these 12 months.
Myanmar continues to host the highest number of non-state armed groups. Local militias have frequently emerged to defend communities and engage in the ongoing conflict, making it the top-ranked country for fragmentation. More than 1,500 distinct actors have been recorded, accounting for 45% of all non-state armed groups active globally in the past 12 months.
Are conflict levels worsening or improving as of July 2024?
As of July 2024, and in comparison to the last year and the past five years, conflict rates continue to worsen. Four countries have seen improvements to their ACLED Conflict Index rankings — Afghanistan, Venezuela, Yemen, and Haiti — and seven have worsened: Pakistan, Peru, Ghana, Russia, Libya, Lebanon, and Cameroon. Overall, of the 50 countries ranked at the top of the index, well over half — 39 — are currently experiencing sustained or escalating levels of conflict.
Can we predict change?
The index aggregates several characteristics of violence sensitive to change, allowing us to robustly assess the likely trajectory of conflict. In January, we expected that Sudan, Haiti, Yemen, and Mexico would likely worsen in the following six months, and Nigeria may improve. Both Haiti and Yemen improved slightly, while Sudan worsened and Mexico remained extremely violent but occupies the same position (at no. 4).
Yemen was expected to continue to experience the negative reverberations from the Gaza conflict, a crisis which the ruling Houthis have adapted for their benefit. Haiti reached a crescendo in early 2024, and temporary cooperation and alignment between contesting gangs have somewhat stabilized Haiti’s disorder.
ACLED produces monthly conflict forecasts at the national and subnational levels in our Conflict Alert System (CAST). This system is highly accurate as to the trajectory of events in very violent countries. For example, on average over the last six months, CAST has predicted the number and type of events within 4% accuracy in half of the ‘extreme’ category countries: Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, and Colombia.
For more information, visit: https://acleddata.com/conflict-index/index-july-2024/
