LONDON - There was a line that caught my eye in the article written for the Guardian by the Nigerien author and journalist Garé Amadou in Naimey, the capital of the country currently experiencing the upheaval of the recent military coup.
After last week’s surprise coup in Niger, the Russian military group Wagner is taking advantage of the chaos and anti-French sentiment, says journalist Garé Amadou in Niamey, while ordinary Nigeriens are preparing for the worst.
He said that people were expecting the worst and stockpiling food as best they could amid that sense of fear that comes to ordinary people too often around the world as they wait for the spats of political elites to play out.
Some hailed the coup as a welcome reaction against the control of the neocolonialist French, whose armed forces are in Niger and who use the country’s uranium to fuel their nuclear power stations, keeping France’s lights on while seemingly complacent about political stability in the poverty-ridden country. In Niger, less than 20% of the population has access to electricity and the country languishes close to the bottom of the UN human development index – 189th out of 191.
People face growing insecurity from violent jihadist bandits on their borders with Mali and Burkina Faso. Nigeriens live in fear of that lawlessness but they are also terrified that their own jobless young men will see their only future in joining these marauding gangs with their vague political ideologies and loose links to religion. Some believe the Russian mercenary group Wagner – which has a presence in Mali – might help with the fight against terrorism.
Sadly, last month’s coup was a simpler story, staged by a group of Nigerien generals fearing they were about to lose their jobs under the incumbent president and thereby ending up with a less financially cushioned retirement than they had hoped for. These elites learned all they know from their colonisers; they might try to drum up support from civil society groups with anti-French feeling, but ultimately it is the same old story: a group of very greedy men caring nothing for their people.
Is there real, solid support for Russia in Niger?
Russia’s support in Niger is limited to so-called pan-Africanist or alter-globalisation circles, mainly through social media networks. Occasionally, however, street demonstrations calling for the withdrawal of the French army from Niger are made by civil society or trade unions. During these, Russian flags are regularly waved. M62, a civil society umbrella organisation set up in 2022, is one of the leading movements surfing a wave of anti-French sentiment, along with the belief that Russian military support through the Wagner group can help Niger in the fight against terrorism. Some members of M62 make no secret of their desire to see Niger forge relations with the paramilitary Wagner.
But the pro-Russia movement can also be found among politicians. The first, who is known for his pan-Africanist ideas and links with Russia, is Abdouramane Oumarou of the Incin Africa party. He frequently travels back and forth to Russia to meet leading figures. The second is the MPD party president, Sulhu. He was arrested on charges of colluding with a foreign power to destabilise Niger. According to our information, that power is Russia. He is said to have received a substantial sum of money to make contacts in this direction. Another group, the Umoja party, has the the same pro-Russian stance.
This development of a pro-Russian movement in Niger is taking place against the backdrop of France’s failure to combat the spread of jihadist terrorism in the Sahel.
How is the already-established Russian presence in the neighbouring country of Mali perceived in Niger?
Generally speaking, the people of Niger take a positive view of Russia’s presence in Mali. They are victims of the propaganda from the Malian junta – the CNSP (National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland) – about the Wagner group’s supposed effectiveness in the fight against terrorism.
They don’t hesitate to extol the virtues of Wagner’s relationship with the Malian army, and tend to reject the regular accusations of mass crimes made against Wagner in Mali. The atrocity in Moura, when 500 people were massacred by Russia-led soldiers – with the Malian president saying the victims were terrorists, despite the UN saying they were mostly civilians – is an example of many Nigeriens embracing pro-Wagner propaganda.
What do Nigeriens think will happen next?
Generally speaking, Nigeriens are convinced that Ecowas will intervene militarily in Niger. News of the mobilisation of subregional troops is reaching Nigerien ears. It is also reported that there has been an apparent failure of negotiations initiated by Ecowas. People have already started stocking up on foodstuffs to prepare for any eventuality.
The fate of President Mohamed Bazoum and his family is in the hands of the junta and the international community, notably Ecowas and the African Union. If there is a military intervention, there is a strong chance that many people, including Bazoum, will lose their lives. According to the information we have, even if Bazoum is in the presidential guard camp, where his residence is located, he is not really in the hands of the putschists. He is under the protection of his heavily armed bodyguard. This explains why he is able to communicate with world leaders. The putschists are unable to take him, as they fear he may be killed in the process, which could plunge Niger into chaos. Contrary to appearances, the other army corps are not supportive of the coup.
