JUBA - Stresses brought about by climate change – including record-breaking droughts, floods and heat extremes – are an important driver of internal displacement in the Global South. The impact that displacement in turn has on conflict dynamics is amplified in fragile states, where political instability and poor governance undermine climate resilience, impede humanitarian support and pave the way for communal friction.
A prime example is South Sudan, reeling from its recent civil war, where four consecutive years of historic flooding have exacerbated food and livelihood insecurity. Rising waters have sent pastoralists fleeing south, where their presence has increased tensions and contributed to violence in the Equatoria region.
In South Sudan, unprecedented floods have submerged large swathes of the country and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. In 2021 alone, over half a million people were displaced internally. The 2022 floods, which have just begun, likely will affect even more. Making matters worse, the flooding has helped drive conflict far to the south, in the country’s Equatoria region. There, newly and previously displaced herders, as well as those who migrated with them, are fighting with long-time resident farmers over land. Dozens have died in fighting over the past year and, unless conflict drivers are addressed, tensions could well increase.
Seasonal flooding is typical in the country, but nothing like these floods has occurred in recent years. While nearly every state in South Sudan has witnessed flooding, the 2021 floods were particularly dire in the country’s centre. The South Sudanese Greater Upper Nile region, comprising Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states, was and remains acutely vulnerable – with some areas facing inundation twice in the same year.
