WASHINGTON - After the devastating economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic in Africa, the continent appeared to recover in 2021. Growth was 4.5%, up from the 3.7% projected by The International Monetary Fund (IMF.)

But this recovery may be short-lived. According to a new IMF report released yesterday (April 28), growth in 2022 will slow to 3.8%. “With the pandemic, a few segments of society were able to insulate themselves from the [economic] effects,” Abebe Aemro Selassie, the director of the IMF’s African Department tells Quartz.

He contrasts this with the war in Ukraine, whose effects—rising fuel and food prices, largely—will be experienced by everyone.

These effects are already being felt across African cities—whether it’s the doubling of fuel prices in Nigeria, food inflation and fuel shortages in Kenya, or heightened food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, a region that heavily relies on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports.

The IMF report urges African governments to address the local impact of the war, balance inflation and growth, and manage exchange-rate adjustments. None of these will be straightforward.

Governments must generate revenue: the two main options are increased borrowing or widening the tax base.

However, Selassie has misgivings. “Taxes need to pay for government spending but governments have to use the money transparently,” he says. Quartz Africa