PARIS - A detailed, data-packed retrospective analysis of the links between urbanisation and demography in both regions from 1950 to 2020, with projections to 2050.
This brief presents a factual and retrospective analysis of the relationships between urbanisation and demography in North Africa and West Africa. It shows that the process of demographic transition is now fully underway in this region.
North of the Sahara the new demographic equilibrium features a birth rate higher than expected, according to theoretical model predictions, resulting in continuous population growth. Over 70% of the population now lives in cities, a number that is expected to continue to rise in the coming decades. South of the Sahara all countries have seen death rates plummet, followed by a decrease in birth rates.
The gap between the change in the two variables has contributed to spectacular natural growth in the space of a few decades. This growth is occurring in parallel with a redistribution of populations to urban areas, which are now home to close to one of every two inhabitants.
West African urbanisation is likely to accelerate the social, economic and political changes that favour the demographic transition. One of the main challenges facing the region is the question of how to reduce the regional variations seen in fertility rates between the continent’s urban and rural areas.
Introduction
Africa is experiencing demographic growth that is unprecedented in the history of the continent. If the growth trend continues, the population of the continent will reach 2.5 billion by 2050, or double the current number of inhabitants (United Nations, 2019[1]). In addition to this demographic growth, urbanisation is increasing at a spectacular rate. While Africa’s urban population grew from 27 million in 1950 to 567 million in 2015, it is the continent’s cities that will absorb two-thirds of the projected demographic growth by 2050 (OECD/SWAC, 2020[2]).
Driven by strong natural growth and intense regional migrations, urbanisation has fuelled transformations that go beyond the mere geographical distribution of the population and its demographic structure. The growth and multiplication of cities is also synonymous with significant changes in the social organisation of African populations, their economic activities and political equilibrium. As is the case in the rest of the world, urbanisation enables more timely access to health and education services as well as to markets and institutions that foster human rights and democracy.
Given that context, this paper presents a factual and retrospective analysis of the relationships between urbanisation and demography in North and West Africa. It provides an update to the work done by the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) of the OECD on human settlement (OECD/SWAC, 2014[3]; 2013[4]) and urbanisation (Moriconi-Ebrard, Harre and Heinrigs, 2016[5]; OECD/SWAC, 2020[2]) over the past decade or so. It outlines the process of demographic transition from an equilibrium of high birth and death rates to a new one marked by low rates. Based on a long-term analysis of regional trends, the paper then discusses to what degree the theoretical stages of a demographic transition apply to countries in North and West Africa. It then illustrates the relationships between urbanisation and fertility, and sheds light on some major, projected demographic changes by 2050.
For the full report, visit: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/4fa52e9c-en.pdf?expires=1637348672&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=F13988ACF39CBB33ABB0CD917EA96182
