ADDIS ABAB - The federal government declared an immediate unilateral ceasefire in Tigray region on 28 June. The ceasefire, which according to the federal government was declared on humanitarian grounds, will last until September.

Tellingly, the declaration came after forces aligned with the dissident TPLF party overran the regional capital of Mekele on the day, prompting both the interim Tigray administration and detachments of the federal army to flee. Around 17 June, the TPLF’s armed forces launched their first major offensive targeting federal positions around Tigray.

By 22 June, they had captured at least five towns before capturing Mekele on 28 June; details on the battle for Mekele are unclear, and the federal government has yet to comment on the purported loss of the strategic city. The TPLF has not responded to the ceasefire declaration; however, international stakeholders such as the United Nations have welcomed the declaration and have urged local counterparts to use the ceasefire to craft a political solution to the ongoing divisions.

The loss of Mekele underscores the degree to which federal control of the capital and the region at large was tenuous.

This may have been exacerbated by security engagements elsewhere and the ongoing withdrawal of Eritrean forces, which had been a vital ally in the initial federal assault on Tigray. It also highlights the Tigray forces’ underlying capabilities. Prior to being dislodged from power, the TPLF was known to have possessed a force of more than 250,000 personnel and an assortment of weaponry.

Going forward, the federal government may retain its relatively belligerent position towards the TPLF. However, the TPLF’s apparent combat advantage in Tigray and its favourability among the Tigray population suggest that the federal government could resign itself to a political solution.